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Daryl Guppy: Global Trading Opportunities NOW
Aspire, Thought Leaders | 15 January 2015
By: Simeon Ang
Articles (125) Profile

I managed to have a short chat with CNBC Chartman and renowned technical analyst, Daryl Guppy in the prelude to his talk during the Market Outlook and Technical Analysis 2015.

While our short chat covered quite a few topics including technical analysis methods as well as possible dangers investors might face in 2015, the stand out topic we talked about was global trading opportunities NOW.

Yes, this is what Daryl Guppy had to say when asked about possible global trading opportunities that are present now and in which investors and traders like you and me can take advantage of! Please note that the transcript below was edited for clarity purposes.

Shanghai – A Stand-Out Opportunity

Daryl Guppy: The stand-out global trading opportunity is Shanghai. And currently, the Shanghai market is pulling back from its highs, we’re looking for a consolidation till around the 3,000 level and then a rebound and a continuation (of the uptrend).

The Shanghai market shows exactly the same pattern that we saw in 2006, 2007 which is the beginning of that long fast moving bull market in Shanghai Index that leads to 2008.

So for us, the major opportunity is in Shanghai market, and with the 沪港通 (Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect), we can now trade Shanghai shares that opens the opportunity in a way that wasn’t available in 2006 and 2007.

Foreign Exchange – Reducing Your Exposure Risk!
Daryl Guppy: We also look at the FX market for short term trading because the key advantage of the FX market is that they have complete liquidity.

We are never in a situation where we cannot fill our orders. How about equity markets, we want to buy 10 lots and all we can do is buy 2 or 3 lots so we can’t execute our trades at the full size. The trade still works out but we can’t deliver the profits.

The risk and rewards process are distorted because we can’t fill out the positions properly. The FX market? That never happens. We can always get the quantity that we need. That means that we can more cleanly execute our trade strategies and on a short term basis, so we remove the risk of exposure to market volatility.

Because the increasing risk in the market is time, time in the market. STI, 3 percent for 12 months. What does that means? It means if you bought in January 2014 and you sold the index in December 2014, you got 3percent.

Your time in the market was a major risk. Now, if I can take a return of 5 or 10 or 15 or 20 percent, if I can take 30, 40, 50, 100 pips in a 3 to 4 hours timeframe, then I reduce the time risk in the trade. That’s one of the key factors.

And of course the third opportunity for 2015, is the continuation of US uptrend in the DOW and NASTAQ.

The Price of Oil – How Low Can It Go?
Daryl Guppy: Oil is currently sitting at down side targets for $48. If it doesn’t develop supports at $48, the next down side target is near $38. There’s a longer term of historical, psychological support level around $40, we think it is likely to consolidate between $38 and $40 but we’re likely to see dips down to $38.

Do note though, always do your due diligence before investing or trading any asset class. Daryl Guppy will be speaking at the Market Outlook and Technical Analysis 2015. For more details head over here!

Transcript of interview was done by Tang Tian Xi

Simeon, an LSE graduate, is currently the editor of Aspire. He specialises on topics surrounding trading psychology, politics and macroeconomics.

Please click here for more information about this author.


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