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STI Continues To Sink As Hot Money Leaves Emerging Markets
Forward, Tradeable | 27 January 2014
By: Justin Harper
Articles (23) Profile
By: Simeon Ang
Articles (125) Profile

Over 13,000 kilometres away, a fund manager at a ski resort in Davos, Switzerland, was of the opinion that there was too much optimism in the world. Lo and behold, emerging markets have since been the first to fall.

The Straits Times Index continues its free fall from the past two trading days during morning trade today. All sub-indices are in the red with Basic Materials, Industrials and Tech stocks performing particularly poorly.

The economic calendar is slightly busier this week, although local traders will probably be looking ahead to Chinese New Year celebrations. Singapore’s corporate earnings season rumbles on this week with Fraser and Mapletree among the heavyweights due to report results.

Read on to find out more of what’s in store for the trading week ahead!

What to Look Out for in the Next 7 Days…

In Singapore…

  • December unemployment rate

Unemployment for Q3 2013 came in at 1.8 percent, a slight dip of 0.3 percent on Q2’s figures.

The labour market remains tight with foreign worker curbs still having an effect. December’s figure is the final piece of the labour market puzzle for 2013, although no real surprises are expected.

Around the World…
In the China, look out for,

  • January manufacturing PMI

China continues to be a mixed bag this year with confusing economic data that doesn’t always point to a sustained recovery.

Last week the local market took a downturn after HSBC’s flash PMI manufacturing print showed a contraction, registering 49.6 for January, compared to expansion of 50.5 for December.

The figure out this week will be from the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP). Its December’s report came in softer-than-expected at 51, although still in expansion mode.

Chinese PMI data can have huge influence over Asian bourses so this report will be eagerly anticipated.

US:

  • December new home sales
  • Durable orders for December
  • FOMC meeting
  • Q4 GDP advance

The U.S housing market has been one of the defining factors in the economic recovery in the U.S. So when housing data shows a dip then jitters start to creep in. November’s data did just that, showing a 2.1 percent fall on October’s five-year high. So spectators will be hoping the housing market gets back on track with December new homes sales.

Durable orders surged in November by 3.5 percent giving some unexpected cheer for the world’s largest economy. December’s reading may be more muted and, indeed, the consensus is for a more modest 1.5 percent increase.

We also have the Fed’s open market committee meeting (FOMC) taking place which always has huge potential to move markets in either direction. While the tapering schedule has been let out of the bag, there could be some comments about the health of the US economy in 2014 to digest.

Another important event is the release of the Q4 GDP advance figure. Q3 saw a healthy reading of 2 percent and the consensus among economists is for a 1.4 percent rise for Q4.

Europe:

  • December unemployment rate

The Eurozone always has the potential to cause an upset, and this year will be no different. While things have been stabilising as of late, Europe is hardly risk-free. Unemployment has been a big problem for the region, trying to get people back into work.

November’s reading of 12.1 percent was the fourth successive month at this rate, although this hints at a stabilisation of the labour market.

While 12 percent unemployment is still way higher than it should be, the positive news is that it is not getting worse. The consensus for December is for the rate to stay unchanged at 12.1 percent.

Scroll down to our Calendar below to find out more about the exact dates of these figures release as well as other important economic data.

Country Type Details
27 January 2014
558-SG Q4 2013 Earnings Release (Projected) UMS Holdings Ltd.
A68U-SG Dividend SG$0.03698 Ascott Residence Trust
J10-SG Dividend SG$0.01 Jaya Holdings Ltd.
J69U-SG Dividend SG$0.025 Frasers Centrepoint Trust
K2LU-SG Dividend SG$0.02137 Cache Logistics Trust
ME8U-SG Dividend SG$0.0251 Mapletree Industrial Trust
HK Economy Dec Trade Balance HKD
US Economy Dec New Home Sales
28 January 2014
C76-SG Q2 2014 Earnings Release (Projected) Creative Technology Ltd.
J85-SG Q4 2013 Earnings Release CDL Hospitality Trusts
S53-SG Q3 2014 Earnings Release SMRT Corp. Ltd.
US Economy FOMC 2-Day Meeting Begins
US Economy Dec Durable Orders
US Economy Jan Consumer Confidence
SG Economy Dec Unemployment Rate SA
29 January 2014
AU8U-SG Q4 2013 Earnings Release (Projected) CapitaRetail China Trust
O23-SG Q4 2013 Earnings Release (Projected) OSIM International Ltd.
S24-SG Q4 2013 Earnings Release STATS ChipPAC Ltd.
MY Economy BN Overnight Policy Rate (OPR)
US Economy FOMC Policy Statement
JP Economy Dec Total Retail Sales Y/Y
JP Economy Jan Trade Balance 1st 10 NSA JPY
SG Economy Dec Bank Credit Y/Y
30 January 2014
T24-SG Q4 2013 Earnings Release Tuan Sing Holdings Ltd.
Z59-SG Q3 2014 Earnings Release (Projected) Yoma Strategic Holdings Ltd.
EUZ Economy Jan Business Climate
EUZ Economy Jan Services Confidence
US Economy 4Q13 GDP Advance Report
US Economy Initial Claims
US Economy Continuing Jobless Claims
US Economy Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
JP Economy Dec Purchasing Managers’ Index (Markit/JMMA)
JP Economy Dec Consumer Price Index (National) Y/Y
JP Economy Dec Unemployment Rate
JP Economy Dec Industrial Production M/M SA (prelim)
31 January 2014
B20-SG Q3 2014 Earnings Release (Projected) Biosensors International Group Ltd.
J91U-SG Q4 2013 Earnings Release (Projected) Cambridge Industrial Trust
M06-SG Q4 2013 Earnings Release (Projected) Multi-Chem Ltd.
NS8U-SG Q4 2013 Earnings Release (Projected) Hutchison Port Holdings Trust
S08-SG Q3 2014 Earnings Release (Projected) Singapore Post Ltd.
JP Economy Dec Housing Starts Y/Y
JP Economy Dec Construction Orders Y/Y
EUZ Economy Jan Consumer Price Index (Y/Y) – Flash Estimate
EUZ Economy Dec Unemployment Rate
CN Economy Jan PMI Manufacturing (CFLP)
01 February 2014
5DD-SG Q2 2014 Earnings Release (Projected) Micro-Mechanics (Holdings) Ltd.
EUZ Economy Jan Markit PMI – Manufacturing
02 February 2014
CN Economy Jan PMI Manufacturing (HSBC/Markit)
03 February 2014
S59-SG Q3 2014 Earnings Release SIA Engineering Co. Ltd.
U19-SG Q3 2014 Earnings Release (Projected) United Envirotech Ltd.
US Economy Jan Markit PMI – Manufacturing
US Economy Dec Construction Spending

Source: FactSet Research Systems

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This is a co-written article of Shares Investment, which lays out the analytical ideas and thoughts of the authors, who are well versed in investments and market concepts.


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