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Who Says We Are Falling Over The Cliff? Not The Americans
Perspective | 26 November 2012
By: Daniel Loh
Articles (40) Profile

If you have been bearish going into year-end, worrying about the fiscal cliff and the stock market, you probably have got to think again. Americans once again showed their retail strength by buying up things and holidaying. In the US, after the Thanksgiving holiday, there has always been a Black Friday shopping weekend.

The Black Friday weekend includes Thursday, Friday, Saturday and the projected spending for Sunday. The National Retail Federation (NRF) will then calculate the sales figures over these four days to gauge consumer spending. This is important for the stock market as it indicates the level of consumer confidence.

Recently released NRF’s Black Friday figures showed that Americans are enjoying their shopping and there was no drop in the retail sales. We have summarised the statistics provided by NRF and outlined our investing game plan and thoughts below:

1) A record 247 million Americans shopped on foot and online during the four-day holiday weekend, up 9 percent from the same period last year, when 226 million made holiday purchases.

(This means that this Black Friday is the best shopping record in history! The Americans are preparing to shop, shop and shop. They probably are not concerned about the fiscal cliff issue.)

2) A total of 89 million Americans shopped online and in brick-and-mortar stores on Black Friday, up from 86 million in 2011, according to the survey conducted by BIGinsight for the NRF. 

(Shopping online means that technological stocks like Ebay and Amazon and Google should be your focus. They are the largest retailing websites and search engine in America. Do not forget online holiday websites Expedia and Priceline too. Do note Expedia and Priceline have fabulous earnings this season. The Technological sector has been the worst performing sector this two months and we do expect a strong rebound going into year-end.)

3) More than 35 million Americans visited retail stores and websites on Thursday, up from 29 million last year, the survey found, with the average holiday shopper spending US$423 this weekend versus US$398 last year, a rise of 6 percent.

(Retailing industry is going to be the direct beneficiary in this holiday season. That means the retail industry is also one of the industry to watch out for going into the end of the year. Companies like Apple, Macy, Costco, Target and Ross Stores are some of the companies to pay attention to.)

Since the beginning of the fiscal cliff issue, we have always maintained our view that the fiscal cliff is a tremendous opportunity for us to accumulate stocks at a discount. We are confident that the US Congress will come up with a solution at the end of the day.

In fact, we are already looking forward to a great EARNINGS SEASON for American companies next January as expectations of their results are lowered because of this season. Looking into history, this has always been the case after a terrible earnings quarter. If the US market comes around, needless to say, Singapore should follow.


Join Us For A Free Investment Seminar:

<<Profitable Strategies to Technical Analysis Revealed>>

You will learn:
1) Singapore stocks that are trending upwards that you should take note of
2) Singapore stocks that did well for earnings
3) Singapore stocks that are giving good dividends
4) Singapore stocks that are suitable for short-term trading

Speaker: Daniel Loh and Andy Yew
Daniel Loh appears regularly in FM95.8 to share insights on market. He is also a SIAS trainer and has been a regular guest speaker for Phillip Securities and Affin Investment Bank. Andy Yew is a stocks system specialist who founded the ART system.

Dates: 29 November 2012, Thursday (English Session)
30 November 2012, Friday (Chinese Session)
Time: 7pm – 10pm
Venue: 141 Cecil Street, Tung Ann Association Building #07-02 S(069541)
(Tanjong Pagar MRT Exit G – Walk straight for 80 meters, opposite the traffic light)

For registration, please call or sms <Name><Email><HP><Date> to 93676623.

DANIEL LOH is an investment coach that specializes in equities and derivatives trading. He regularly appears on TV financial programmes like “Morning Express”, "Good Morning Singapore" and "Hello Singapore". He is interviewed bi-weekly on radio station FM95.8.

Please click here for more information about this author.

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